In 2022, the Dutch passenger car market will grow again for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Growth is being driven primarily by electrified powertrains, which are cutting into the market share of internal combustion engines. The gradual easing of the semiconductor shortage is having a particularly positive effect.
Short-term outlook: Improved supply availability paves the way for recovery in H2
Since the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, the Dutch car market has only seen declining new registrations – but in 2022 we will see a significant growth of +10.5% for the first time.
However, 2022 starts slightly muted due to the lockdown extending into January and the economic burden of the Omicron variant. Also missing in Q1 are new registrations that were tactically brought forward to the end of 2021, allowing OEMs to bring down their EU CO2 emissions, avoid fines, and comply with EU regulation. Meanwhile fleet customers were able to secure the lower taxes that where valid until the end of 2021.
The outlook for the rest of the year, however, is more confident, as the semiconductor shortage will ease slightly from Q2 and significantly from H2 (Q3 & Q4). We therefore expect a markable increase in momentum in the passenger car market in the second half of the year. Likewise, a buoyant labour market, together with a weakening impact of the pandemic, will lead to an upswing in H2. In 2023, the passenger car market will grow by another 11.4 percent, albeit with a slightly negative progression over the year.