Marc Odinius (Dataforce): “95 g/km CO2 by 2021 only possible with 50% electrification”

Fleet Europe Summit

During the first session of the Forum at the Fleet Europe Summit in Estoril, Marc Odinius, Managing Director of Data Force, shared his view on four major trends in fleet management in 2017 and beyond.

SUV no longer a trend

The first trend is no trend anymore, Odinius says. SUV’s having seen an incredible growth in the past years, to the detriment of the middle class and compact cars, are here to stay. The SUV trend has been steady from 2008 to 2017. While in the beginning, there were only big SUV’s, they saw new and smaller models accompanying them. The compact and small SUV’s are now the major force in the SUV segment. With the market share of big and medium SUV’s going down, compact and small SUV’s are taking the lead in an ever rising segment. Odinius shows that when looking at the new car models to come in the following months and years, they are nearly all SUV’s. An amazing constatation, which means that ‘SUV-ification’ is not a trend anymore, but the reality of today. The rise will continue, they are here to stay.

Alternative an Alternative

Odinius also talked about the alternative fuel trend. Is diesel still trending? In the EU, the diesel market share is declining, and that is not new. Gasoline cars see their market share increase to the detriment of diesel, but electric and hybrid drivetrains see substantial growth too. Today these engines represent 4% of the total number of registrations, which is more than ever before. The trend towards alternative drivetrains (plugin hybrid, electric) is clearly present and ever increasing. The plugin hybrids will be a bridging technology towards full electrification in the future.

When would people change to an EV? The conclusion of the question he asked in as survey is that only 13% would never, which means that 87% see themselves driving an electric car in the (near) future, depending on the range.  This is proof of the fact that the mindset has changed.

So, says Odinius, Alternative is an Alternative, we are still at the beginning but the trend is there.

Is 95g/km CO₂ by 2021 an unreachable target?

The European Union set the ambitious target of 95 grammes of CO₂ on average for all carmakers, with heavy penalties for brands not reaching it. Odinius points out that the Brexit will lower the EU volume and thereby the penalties to be paid by the constructors.

He showed the scenario for Germany that today has an emission average of 124 g, and would see an average of 114 g in 2021 solely looking at efficiency gains of 2%.

At the same time, an unwanted side effect of the further decline of diesel towards gasoline engines is the rise of CO₂ emissions to 118 g. Even further from the goal.

It is clearly only by electrifying car fleets (hybridisation and full electric), that the emissions goal can be reached. With a 21% electrification, if feasible, Germany would arrive at 112 g, and with a 35% electrification, that figure would be 103g, still too high. Only with 50% of electrification the goal of  95 g could be reached. The need to move fast is clear, in order to avoid gigantic penalties. Hybrids and electric cars are an obligation if we want to get there, says Odinius.

Fleet Market Forecast

As a last trend, Odinius points out that in the year 2017 we witnessed an impressive growth in the fleet market all over Europe, with the exception of Norway, Finland, Sweden and the UK. In all countries we saw record levels of true fleet registrations. With a growing and steadily strong consumer confidence and economic growth, the trend is still positive for the coming years. For 2018 Dataforce predicts at least the same figure as in 2017. We’re in for some more great years for fleets.