The forecast approach starts by determining the long-term trend which is driven by factors as car ownership and changing mobility preferences, demographics like urbanisation and the number of households, environmental and traffic policy, and the technical developments in terms of digitalisation and battery development. Having derived the overall trend, we compute medium term fluctuations stemming from the economic cycle, replacement demand, taxation and subsidies or model policy, i.e. the impact from new model introductions. For the short-term perspective of the current and next year and to go into monthly forecasts we are considering the individual seasonal patterns and working days impacts as well as special effects such as sales promotions or anticipated or delayed registrations.
The forecast is based on Dataforce new registrations derived from the IRIS® system, the car parc and used car transfer figures, insights from the fleet manager panel Dataforce FleetBase®and macroeconomic and sociodemographic forecasts provided by Oxford Economics. Then we add our own calculations on the impact of model policy, replacement demand, environmental regulation and taxation changes.