- Following a weak first half, registration figures in the three countries have stabilised as of September 2025.
- For the full year 2025, the prior year’s level can just about be maintained; for 2026, Dataforce forecasts growth of just under 5 percent.
- A new replacement cycle is beginning in the fleet market; in the private market, recovery depends on how many customers buy a new BEV instead of a used ICE vehicle.
- Electrification continues in 2026. For company cars, battery electric vehicles will become the dominant fuel type by volume.
Year to date has been challenging
Market development across the three countries has been challenging. As of September 2025, the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) stands at a minimal gain of around 0.3 percent. The German market is stagnating (-0.3%), the Swiss market is down 4.1 percent, while the Austrian market has posted a solid gain of 10.1 percent.
 What’s behind the weak demand
Sluggish economic growth and widespread uncertainty are causing consumers and businesses to hold back on major purchases. Households in particular are still grappling with higher costs of living and are using income gains primarily to rebuild savings. On top of that comes the powertrain transition. Falling petrol and diesel sales can only be partially offset by rising electric vehicle volumes.
The low point has been passed
However, there are also positive factors. The broader economy is now showing signs of recovery – in Germany driven mainly by sharply rising government spending, in Austria and Switzerland through the upswing in the economic cycle. With trade agreements in place and savings on the rise, risks for households and businesses are receding somewhat. They are gradually becoming more willing to replace ageing vehicles.
Model policy is another important factor, particularly new launches from German premium manufacturers, which account for just under a quarter of the market in the three countries.
These gradual improvements are already visible in monthly registration figures. The third quarter developed significantly better than the weak first two quarters.
Forecast for 2025 and 2026
Overall, Dataforce therefore expects 3.31 million passenger car registrations across the three DACH countries in 2025. In other words, volumes will stagnate compared to 2024. For 2026, Dataforce forecasts 3.47 million units, representing growth of just under 5 percent, with gains concentrated in the first half of the year.
The private market is expected to grow roughly in line with the overall market, supported by rising incomes and improved consumer confidence. Ultimately, however, market development hinges on the willingness of private customers to embrace electric vehicles. Otherwise, households are more likely to opt for used ICE vehicles.
For company cars, relative growth is slightly stronger, especially compared to the weak demand in 2025. Next year, however, businesses will need to replace more vehicles, as cars are accumulating higher mileage again, post-COVID. More generally, the company car remains a win-win: employees can drive a car they often couldn’t otherwise afford, while companies strengthen their attractiveness as employers.
Electrification forecast
In 2025, traditional ICE vehicles and non-plug-in hybrids are in retreat. Dataforce expects sales in the DACH region to fall by almost 12 percent by year-end. By contrast, battery electric vehicles will narrowly surpass the previous peak of 626,000 units achieved in 2023. Dataforce forecasts 650,000 units by the end of 2025 (+38% vs. 2024).
The biggest winners in 2025, however, are plug-in hybrids with an expected gain of 53 percent. Considering the more realistic Euro 6e-bis standard will be introduced as planned, Dataforce expects PHEV sales to fall by 14 percent next year.
Instead, manufacturers will use the new long-range 800-volt models to convince even more company car drivers to go fully electric, thereby pushing overall BEV penetration from 19.6 percent in 2025 to 24.8 percent in 2026. Particularly interesting here is the development in company cars, where electric vehicles will become the highest-volume fuel type for the first time next year.
