Dataforce’s outlook on the European car market in 2022

Can the European car market recover in 2022? How will electrification continue, and which trends will determine market dynamics? Find the Dataforce forecast and assessments of our market experts here.

European passenger car market forecast

A slight increase in vehicle production in the first half of the year and stronger growth in the second half will lead to around 12.6 million new registrations in Europe[1] in 2022. Compared to 2021, this is an increase of 8.9%. The private market will develop somewhat more strongly than commercial new registrations. Here, we expect substantial growth in company cars, but rental companies, manufacturers and dealer activity will still be limited by supply shortages.

Fuel type development

Electric vehicles will continue to expand their market share next year. However, the pace of growth is slowing down. We expect BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs combined to increase their market share by only 3.5 percentage points.  The easing of semiconductor shortages imply that manufacturers have more capacities to produce petrol and diesel vehicles again, and as EV shares continue to rise, they also need to worry less about their CO₂ targets.

At the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract additional customers. In the premium segment, many buyers already drive electric. For small and compact cars, however, the price premium for BEVs is still relatively high and the ranges are shorter while some countries are reducing their EV subsidies.

Comments

Benjamin Kibies – Senior Automotive Analyst

Even if the low point is passed, vehicle production will remain the bottleneck in 2022, with demand significantly greater than supply. Therefore, manufacturers will need to focus on high-margin sales in 2022 as well. Major customers such as car rental companies or the large fleet operators will get smaller discounts and manufacturers’ and dealers’ own registrations will be further curtailed.

Julian de Groot – Head of Sales, Product and Marketing

We are going to see a very strange 2022 year, which will probably be impacted by chip shortage in H1. The market shares of the brands might see some unusual swings, depending on their ability to secure both chips as well as batteries. The EV train will continue to go ahead but will get resistance from the lack of infrastructure in place.

We will be in a very contradictive situation, where on the one hand people are using flexible sharing solutions for transportation, but on the other hand people wanting to have their own transportation because of Covid. One thing that we can say is that travelled km’s per person will remain relatively low in the coming years”.

Katharina Wolff – Senior Key Account Manager Germany

In 2022, the new coalition government in Germany will have to make important decisions on funding in the e-mobility sector and on the expansion of the charging infrastructure so that we can make progress with electrification. In sales to fleet customers, it is becoming increasingly important to also address user choosers. This is an increasingly prevalent employee loyalty scheme used by companies, where company car drivers are allowed to choose their own vehicle and thus act like a financially well-off private individual.

Laura Odinius – Product Manager

The pandemic and the awareness of proximity have made individual transport attractive again. Many investments were held back by the semiconductor crisis, uncertainty on the labour market and reduced mobility due to home offices.  If we make it out of the pandemic and the supply bottlenecks in 2022, we are finally in for a boom in the car market again.

Marc Odinius – CEO

Cars are here to stay. The benefits of individual transport have clearly been highlighted by the current situation. We will see more cars going less milage – economy and ecology are for once not in contradiction.

Great to be able to support these radical changes with our information

Michael Gergen – Senior Key Account Manager Germany

The number and variety of new models gives cause for optimism for a market revival in 2022. There is, of course, a whole series of new electric models (Cupra Born, Mercedes EQE, Nissan Ariya, Renault Megane E-Tech, VW ID5 and VW ID Buzz). But there are also new models in the recently so strongly growing SUV portfolio (Alfa Romeo Tonale, new BMW X1, new Mercedes GLC, VW Taigo). We can also look forward to “normal cars” (new BMW 2 Series Active Tourer, Dacia Jogger, new Opel Astra, new Peugeot 308). Last but not least, it will certainly be interesting to see how new (electric) market participants will perform (Aiways U6, Genesis GV60, MG5).

Richard Worrow – Key Account Manager International

While on the face of it, it can be said that the industry is going through some turmoil with outside pressures from CO₂ targets, COVID pandemic and the semi-conductor shortage. But these influences can also be said to have provided a catalyst for some good advancement, especially in regard to the adoption of BEVs and PHEVs.

Fresh impetus for the markets comes from new brands MG, Aiways, Nio, Wey & Ora from Asia, Lucid, Rivian, Fisker or Faraday Future based out of the US and Arrival are about to tackle the LCV market. The stalwart brands we all know have adapted fast, with some actively announcing the end of thermal engine sales in the not-so-distant future. The turmoil will pass, the future is brighter and 2022 (once chips are available) should prove to be the shot in the arm needed to propel the automotive industry forward once again.

[1] Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom