- After a strong 2024 for ICE passenger cars, stricter COâ‚‚ -targets force a leap of BEV registrations in 2025 for EU27+NO,IS,CH
- The LCV market is expected to see a small decline in 2025, with recovery anticipated shortly after
- LCV markets lag behind in electrification. Registrations are highly unlikely to meet the COâ‚‚ targets set by regulation for 2025
Share of BEV in registration to reach half of the market volume by 2030
According to our latest studies the Dataforce PC LCV reports, 2024 proved a strong year for ICE Passenger Car (PC) registrations as many buyers brought purchases forward in anticipation of tighter European COâ‚‚ regulations in 2025. Meanwhile, BEV market shares stagnated amid reduced grant support. This dynamic sets the stage for a significant leap in the share of BEV registrations in 2025. Looking beyond the current year, continued technical progress, economies of scale and new market entrants will and are already currently driving price reductions. Substantial gains in range and charging infrastructure will lay the groundwork for BEVs to inevitably become the new industry standard. Dataforce expects them to represent roughly 50 percent of all new passenger car registrations by 2030.
Accounting for not just electric vehicles, the stringent COâ‚‚ reduction targets will constrain overall growth potential and introduce added volatility as the sector transitions toward 2030. Even against a backdrop of expected economic growth, Dataforce anticipates that annual registration volumes will decelerate once the BEV inflection point has passed. Focusing on the private segment, Dataforce expects only modest growth, as weakened consumer confidence and diminished purchasing power prompt many buyers to defer major investments for now and lean more heavily on older and used vehicles.
The outlook for ICE vehicles is increasingly challenging: impending diesel driving bans in urban areas, high tax regimes and dwindling incentives are eroding appeal among fleet operators and high-mileage drivers. At the same time, falling BEV costs and the introduction of ETS-2 COâ‚‚ pricing in 2026, which raises the cost of fossil fuels, will further tip the total-cost-of-ownership balance in favour of electrification.
LCV Market: Stagnation in 2025 but recovery expected
Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) registrations have staged a solid rebound in 2023 and 2024, after plunging during the 2020 and 2022 supply-shortage episodes. Yet they still lag their pre-pandemic volumes. In 2024, many businesses accelerated acquisitions ahead of incoming EU CO₂ limits, leaving 2025 predicted to underperform in comparison to last year’s robust results. Unlike passenger cars, LCVs face a steeper hurdle under the EU’s tightening CO₂ targets, given their much lower levels of electrification. Dataforce expects any post-regulation recovery to hinge on continued cost reductions, the rollout of more capable electric LCV models and sustained economic growth.
The LCV segment remains highly attached to diesel, which accounted for 86 percent of 2024 registrations. Even with diesel sales set to slip in 2025, manufacturers will struggle to comply with EU-CAFE COâ‚‚ mandates and likely incur penalty payments as the segment is lacking BEV. Broader electrification depends heavily on vehicle application: parcel and last-mile delivery fleets show strong uptake, whereas construction-industry operators, facing long routes and heavy payloads, cannot yet replace diesel vans with battery-electric alternatives. Meeting future COâ‚‚ regulations and shifting the market will require fundamental overhauls of fleet strategies so that BEV-LCVs align with the specific demands of commercial users.
About the studies
In two separate studies the Dataforce EU Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Report 2025 cover current developments in the European PC and LCV market respectively. The reports include current registration data from 30 European countries (EU27+NO, IS, CH). Aside from analysis of the past five years in 4 market segments Private, True Fleets, Rent-A-Car and Dealer & Manufacturers, they also project the individual sector’s evolution to 2030 with detailed forecasts that weave together trends, forthcoming regulatory milestones and the key events. Additionally, the reports include data on current market leaders by country (make), popular models and most prevalent vehicle segments.
More details on the reports can be found here: www.dataforce.de/en/eu-pc-lcv-report-2025/
