Dataforce analysis on CO2 development and electrification in Europe

The EU, but also Switzerland and the United Kingdom, require car manufacturers to meet strict CO₂ targets. Under the keyword Road-2-Zero, Dataforce analyses and forecasts the CO₂ reduction and electrification of the car market. Some highlights from the latest analysis can be found in this article.

WLTP CO₂ emissions of new passenger cars fall to 113 g/km

In terms of CO₂ emissions, the automotive industry as a whole is doing well – despite ambitious EU targets. Across all countries, the average emissions of newly registered passenger cars as of January-September 2022 are only 113 g/km. That is 6 g/km less than in the same period in 2021. The EU target – converted to WLTP, the 95 g/km result in about 116 g/km – is thus undercut by 3 g/km. And this does not even take into account the Supercredits and the weight factor. The former allows BEVs and PHEVs to a higher weight in the average calculation, but it will only apply until the end of 2022.The weight factor considers that the vehicles are slightly heavier on average than the standard weight defined by the EU and thus increases the target values for manufacturers with heavier cars.

It will be tight for the VW Group

The CO₂ targets are a greater challenge for the VW Group. The combined average of VW, Audi, Skoda and SEAT brands is 125 g/km, which is even slightly above their previous year’s value. The shortfalls in electric car productions over the first half of this year have upset the planning. However, the Wolfsburg company will probably not have to pay any fines. Taking into account the Supercredits and the weight adjustment, it will be enough this year. As another safeguard, VW Group has also formed an emission hedging pool with multiple smaller electric car manufacturers (including MG, Nio, LEVC, Xpeng, eGo), which will further bring down CO₂.

Scandinavian countries with almost 50% BEV share

The CO₂ reductions are driven by ever larger shares of electric cars. The Scandinavian countries are leading the way here. 46% of private buyers here have opted for a BEV in 2022, and the trend is rising.

But electrification is also continuing in other countries. For France, among others, Dataforce expects BEVs to be the most popular fuel type by 2027.