The new registration development in recent months in Western Europe has been characterized by the reduction of high order backlogs, overshadowing the current weak trend in new orders due to high energy and living costs, high interest rates, and declining real wages.
New registrations have significantly increased in May compared to last year, but they still remain well below pre-COVID levels.
In May, new car registrations in the major European countries were significantly higher than the corresponding figures of the previous year. The new registration figures for the first five months also surpass those of the previous year. However, Germany’s cumulative growth of only 10,2% can be attributed to the substantial preferential purchases made in December of the previous year, which resulted in a decline in new registrations in January.
In Western Europe, we can expect a mere economic growth of 0.8 percent this year, alongside a persistently high inflation rate of nearly 6 percent.
The reasons for this unfavorable economic situation include the ongoing political uncertainty (such as the Ukraine conflict), high energy price pressures, erosion of purchasing power among households, a weaker external economic environment, strained trade relations with China, more restrictive financing conditions, and the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The improved delivery capability of manufacturers and the resulting reduction in high order backlogs have led to a significant increase in new car registrations in recent months. The reduction in order backlogs will continue to have a positive impact on new car registrations until June and will overshadow the declining demand due to significant increases in energy and living costs.
During the summer months, alow level of new registrations can be expected. It is only towards the end of the year that an increase in new car registrations in Western Europe is expected again.
Overall, new car registrations in Western Europe are projected to increase by 10.2% to 11,2 million vehicles this year.